CORE saib
Lub macro kev xav ntawm kev ua lag luam tau yooj yim, kev tsim kho qis qis tom qab hnub so, cov khoom muag petrochemical tau nce zuj zus, thiab cov yas poob rov qab tom qab kev nce siab.
Kev lag luam luv luv yog nyob rau lub sijhawm nqus tsev uas qhov kev thov yuav tsum tau kuaj xyuas, thiab cov khoom siv siab tseem tsis tau muaj zog. Raws li qhov kev sib tw ntawm xyoo dhau los, tus nqi qis qis yuav maj mam nce nyob rau yav tom ntej. Ob lub lis piam tom qab hnub so, tej zaum yuav muaj ib puag ncig ntawm cov khoom xav tau nyob hauv qab dej. Muaj qee qhov kev txhawb nqa hauv qab tus nqi luv luv, thiab kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem rov ua dua. Lub tswv yim muag luv luv luv yuav maj mam tso tseg cov nyiaj seem.
Txawm li cas los xij, tom qab ua tiav ntawm lub sijhawm luv luv downstream replenishment, lub lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb taw tes tseem yuav rov qab mus rau qhov kev lees paub thiab kev dag ntxias ntawm kev xav tau muaj zog. Cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv hauv 23 xyoo dhau los yog qhov tseeb dua. Tam sim no, cov khoom lag luam siab ntawm cov saw hlau tau nce ntxiv. Yog tias qhov kev thov nce ntxiv yav tom ntej tsis tuaj yeem zom cov khoom nce ntxiv, kev lag luam cov khoom lag luam siab yuav nce ntxiv. Yog tias qhov kev thov muaj zog thiab qhov kev cia siab yog dag, kev ua lag luam tseem yuav ua rau kev kho lub sijhawm nruab nrab.
Cov ntsiab lus txaus ntshai: thaj chaw macro tshaj qhov kev cia siab, cov nqi raw khoom tshaj qhov kev cia siab, thiab cov khoom xa tuaj tshaj qhov kev cia siab
Logical Trace
01
Nqe sib txawv:
Lub hauv paus muaj zog me ntsis, tab sis tseem tsis muaj zog
Raws li lub Ob Hlis 3, qhov sib txawv ntawm cov yas yog - 29 yuan/ton, thiab tus nqi sib txawv ntawm 5-9 yog 37 yuan/ton. Lub lim tiam dhau los no, tus nqi yas tau nce thiab poob rov qab, thiab lub hauv paus tau ntxiv dag zog me ntsis, tab sis qhov chaw hloov pauv tsis zoo, thiab lub hauv paus tseem tsis muaj zog. Kev rov qab los ntawm kev tsim kho pib thiab ntxiv cov peev txheej tsim tawm tshiab, lub hauv paus kev lag luam siab nyob rau yav tom ntej tseem yuav loj, thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm lub hauv paus loj yuav tsis muaj zog. Txawm li cas los xij, lub hauv paus luv luv converges, thiab tus nqi yuav rov ua dua.
02
Xav tau:
Tom qab hnub so, cov khoom siv hauv qab tau rov pib dua thiab hauv qab ntawm kev tsim kho pib nce qeeb
Lub lim tiam dhau los, kev pib ua yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb tau nce los ntawm 10 feem pua mus rau 30 feem pua , ntim ntau lawm tau nce 4 feem pua rau 41 feem pua, monofilament ntau lawm nce 5 feem pua rau 30 feem pua , cov yeeb yaj kiab ntau lawm tau nce 10 feem pua rau 35 feem pua, hollow ntau lawm nce los ntawm 4 feem pua rau 29 feem pua , thiab cov yeeb nkab ntau lawm tau nce 8 feem pua rau 28 feem pua. Hais txog kev ua yeeb yaj kiab ua liaj ua teb, qhov kev thov tseem tsis tau zoo tag nrho, thiab kev lag luam tau pib maj mam nce. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, lub ncov lub caij ntawm kev ua liaj ua teb zaj duab xis yog yuav los, thiab kev thov rau ua liaj ua teb zaj duab xis tej zaum yuav muaj ib tug tseem ceeb nce. Hais txog cov kav dej, cov chaw tsim khoom nruab nrab thiab loj tau rov pib tsim khoom tom qab lub koob tsheej. Feem ntau ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom me me thiab nruab nrab tau pib ua haujlwm tom qab Lub Teeb Festival, thiab cov khoom pib tau maj mam nce.
03
Khoom siv:
Lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm thiab kev pib ua haujlwm tau nce, thiab cov khoom siv siab tau maj mam nce
Lub lim tiam dhau los, PE cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tau pib ua haujlwm ntawm {{0}}}.58 feem pua, nce 0.23 feem pua ntawm ib hlis-rau-lub lim tiam. Kev saib xyuas poob yog 29800 tons, nrog kev txo qis ntawm 4500 tons ntawm lub lis piam mus rau ib hlis, thiab kev saib xyuas poob yog nyob rau theem qis. Nws yog thawj zaug kwv yees tias kev saib xyuas poob rau lub lim tiam no yuav yog 25800 tons, qhov txo qis ntawm 4000 tons ntawm ib hlis-rau-hli, thiab cov khoom yuav tsum nce ntxiv. Nrog rau kev tsim khoom ntawm Guangdong Petrochemical thiab Hainan Refining thiab Tshuaj, thiab rov pib dua ntawm Wanhua Chemical (600309) thiab lwm yam, cov khoom siv siab yuav maj mam nce, thiab kev siv lub peev xwm hauv tsev tuaj yeem nce mus rau ntau dua 90 feem pua hauv Lub Ob Hlis.
04
Ntshuam:
Tom qab hnub so, tus naj npawb ntawm kev lis kev lis kev cai hauv Hong Kong tau nce ntxiv, thiab tus naj npawb ntawm cov khoom lag luam hanging upside down nce me ntsis.
Lub lim tiam dhau los, tus nqi hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev tau poob, tab sis cov khoom siv hauv kev lag luam sab nraud tau nruj, ua ke nrog cov kev xav tau zoo dua hauv kev lag luam sab nraud, kev thov txawv teb chaws tau nce, thiab cov nqi sib txawv ntawm sab hauv thiab sab nraud tau nce. Tom qab hnub so, feem ntau cov lag luam rov qab mus rau kev ua lag luam ib zaug. Cov kev xav tau qis qis tau maj mam rov qab los, thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam huab cua yog qhov kaj. Nrog rau qhov tsis zoo ntawm cov nyiaj so koobtsheej cuam tshuam, lub ntim ntim rau qhov chaw nres nkoj rau kev lis kev cai tshem tawm tau nce, tab sis tag nrho cov nyiaj rau qhov chaw nres nkoj tsis loj, thiab qhov chaw nres nkoj cov khoom lag luam siab tsis loj.
05
Cov khoom muag:
Cov khoom lag luam saw hlau txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv
Raws li lub Ob Hlis 3, cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov qauv tsim khoom lag luam, cov khoom muag chaw nres nkoj thiab cov neeg ua lag luam coj mus kuaj pom muaj kev nce ntxiv nyob rau ib hlis-rau-hli. Thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, muaj ntau cov khoom muag, kev muag khoom tom qab hnub so tsis zoo, thiab cov khoom muag ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tau sau, tab sis tag nrho cov siab tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb, uas ua raws li cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm kev lag luam. Chaw nres nkoj cov khoom muag, ntshuam mus rau qhov chaw nres nkoj tsawg dua, tab sis kev lag luam tsis muaj zog hauv lub lim tiam, kev rov qab los ntawm cov dej ntws qis yog txwv, thiab cov khoom muag tau sau me ntsis. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov tub luam, qhov downstream rov qab tau qeeb, tsawg tshaj li qhov xav tau, thiab cov khoom xa tuaj qeeb qeeb. Ntxiv nrog rau kev siv cov phiaj xwm petrochemical, cov khoom khaws cia tau pom tseeb.